Generex Wakes Up

I have owned Generex (GNBT) for years.  And was resigned to the proposition that it was a doggedy dog dog dog, and I’d have to figure out when I could take the loss.  In my mind I had written down the tens of thousands I had invested in it.  I have written on it number times here in Seeking Alpha, but not for years as it drifted into the suspended animation.

I have always liked their technologies.  The buccal drug delivery system delivers drugs by means of a couple of puffs of an aerosol into the inside of the cheek (not the lung).  Their test case was for delivery of insulin to Type I diabetes patients.  They did the Phase I, Phase II, and Phase III studies.  There was no rejection or failure, but the FDA wanted yet more research, and they ran out of money and the company slipped into a diabetic coma.

I figured that once this delivery system powered up, the entire diabetic population would turn on a dime, and switch over to this system in short order.  I based this entirely on my own perception that if I could avoid sticking myself with a needle (even if the advertising guys tried to soft soap it by calling the needle a “pen”), I would do it.  I don’t think I’m wrong.

After all, Pfizer had written down $2.8 billion on another system to avoid the needle.  I think that that alone is a strong argument that I cannot be far off.  Pfizer’s drug, called Exubera, was designed to be inhaled into the lung.  It turned out that patients, and some doctors, were not comfortable with the lung involvement.  And that was that.

So now comes Joe Moscato, who was a marketing executive for Pfizer on the Exubera drug roll out.  That drug failed win a following, but he was still attracted to the idea of replacing the needle, and the buccal system seemed like the ideal solution.  I spoke with him as fellow shareholders five or six years back, both of us enamored with the idea of getting away from the needle.  We thought doctors would glom on to the buccal system, and their patients, not fearing the needle, would comply with their recommendations.   Out of the blue, I learn that a year ago Joe was made the CEO.

When I spoke with him after he took over, he revealed an essential fact, the kind of fact that a marketing guy would point to, which is, that 95% of diabetic patients are Type II, and that’s where the money is.  And he said that was where the new Generex was headed.  (To make the point absolutely clear that there is new management, they are changing the name to NuGenerex).

In the meantime, the elves at Generex, working through its somnolent winter, found a researcher who was able to amp the formulation, and make it more potent.  Instead of a user having to spritz up to ten puffs in the mouth, they have it down to one or two.  Things are coming together.  I call them elves because no one at Generex is making any fortune on this company so far. 

After all, Generex just suffered one of the most devastating share reductions I have ever witnessed in my life.  On March 14, 2017, shareholders received just 1 share for every 1,000 shares they owned.  This has reduced the number of shares to just over a million.  My million shares became a mere 1,000.

Serious investors will have to throw more money on the fire to build their positions.  Painful for investors who took the hit on the reverse split.  On the other hand, investors like myself feel that spring has been wound to its maximum.

The Man with a Plan

Joe Muscato’s plan is to develop a pharmacy operation that will throw off enough cash to pay for any studies required for the diabetic product, Ora-lyn.  The initial steps have already taken place.  His ideas all have a very practical and sensible tilt.  He has what I would call “nice” judgment.

But there are other parts to this company.  It is not a one trick pony.  I have not discussed the company’s subsidiary, Antigen Express, which is developing vaccines for breast cancer and prostate cancer.  I have not discussed the company’s other subsidiary, Hema Diagnostic Systems, which has developed quick tests for tuberculosis and the STD’s (sexually transmitted diseases), diseases which seem to be coming back, and which I expect will used widely in the third world.

Nor have I discussed that the buccal delivery system could be used for other drugs, as Joe says, if they are of a certain molecule size, and taste is another issue.  Nor have I discussed the other possible uses for Antigen Express’s technology, other cancers or infectious diseases, or the other tests that Hema Diagnostic has developed and will develop.  Or the pharmacy operation.

My conclusion is that this company, which is now down to 1 million shares has the best chances of any company in America.  The insulin buccal delivery system and the vaccines for prostate and breast cancer are each possibly billion dollar businesses.  If I had to pick one stock for the coming year, this would be it.

Telecommunications Making a Comeback

I love to start each day with a bit of reading, but, witness the lack of postings, and an even further lack of recommendations, I have been hard pressed to find among my readings something worthy of passing along to readers.  I have one to recommend today.  Some of the good news is already out there, and the stock is enjoying that news.  But there is probably still some juice left in the stock.

The news is regarding Alcatel-Lucent (ALU).  I have been loathe to recommend this stock, which I saw as not having a clear focus and burdened with out-of-date legacy systems as we move out of analog era into the digital era.  It's been one write-off after another.  The reason to recommend the stock is that it got a management change.  Actually, it got the management change in 2008, and that's what has made the difference.

The article, "Hi-Yah!  Alcatel-Lucent Chops Away at Years of Failure!", appears in Bloomberg Business Weeks' May 2-8, 2011 issue.  The central change is the hiring of a Dutch anglophile, Bernardus Johannes Maria Verwaayen.  Ben started at ITT, and continued at the Dutch telecom firm, PTT, then joining Lucent in 1997.  He became CEO of BT (British Telecom), and finally, in 2008 he returned to become head of Alcatel-Lucent, replacing embattled Patricia Russo.

Management of Alcatel-Lucent had become so messy and encumbered that his first day on the job, Ben was asked to sign off on hiring a secretary in Poland after 16 levels below had already signed off.  He wrote an email saying, "This ends now.  Hiring from now on is the responsibility of a manager and his or her boss."

Verwaayen Bets on LTE

Another important decision was make a choice on wireless technology, and that appears to have been the correct decision.  He and company bet on LTE, focusing less on Wimax.  Alcatel-Lucent makes equipment for the wireless cell towers and the optical equipment that links them.  Example: it logged a $4 billion 4-year agreement with Verizon Wireless

Alcatel-Lucent Becomes Number 2 in Routers

For those unaware of any but Cisco and Juniper in routers, it turns out Alcatel-Lucent is also a player.  Not only a player, but this year jumped past Juniper to the No. 2 spot, growing from 12% of the market in 2008 to 16% this year.  Alcatel-Lucent's router is able to transmit all of the major data types, making it less complex and less costly than other platforms, yet scalable with the use of "blades."

Slashed Expenses

Well, ALU has been slashing expenses for years but it has slashed another $860 million in expenses since Ben Verwaayen took over.  And, of course, it is necessary to keep expenses down to get close to being the low cost provider that is necessary for economic viability.

Research

It might be worth it to remind readers that Alcatel-Lucent owns Bell Labs, one of the great research laboratories of all time.  It was here that the transistor was invented and won Nobel prizes.  A recent product from Bell Labs is something called lightRadio, which can extend cell wireless coverage without setting up massive cell towers.  So, while Alcatel is concerned about competition from the likes of low-cost providers like Huawei in China.  Huawei does not have Alcatel's Bell Labs providing innovation.

On the Downside

It's been five years since it delivered a full year of profits.  And the good news has already pushed the stock to a double.  So, this advance has to temper your enthusiasm somewhat.  Though if you have a three year or more horizon, the good news is likely to continue.  A warning:  stay clear of all the major telecom networks:  AT&T, Sprint, Verizon and the like.  They are not the utilities of yesteryear.  They are ruled by high tech, and they are encumbered by taxes, and they are currently victims of net neutrality.   Net neutrality is not innocuous.  It permits unfair competition in retail by Amazon, and in telecommunications by the likes of Skype and Google Voice.

So, the government is allowing Skype and Google Voice to get away with stealing business from the major telecoms without collecting taxes.  In the case of Google, whose telephone service is supported by advertising revenue, the question is it really free?  What we know is that while waiting for the government to decide what to do about taxing advertising revenue, Skype has swiped 20% of the international minutes.

Moving on to Other Stuff

I have lost my enthusiasm for Citibank.  While I like Vikram Pandit, and the bank's board of directors decided that it should pay him more than the $1 per year he was making, he failed to generate any excitement in the stock.  Failing to stir enough interest in the stock to get it above the $5 limit that many funds require to buy a stock, he has gone for a 1 for 10 reverse stock split, which I consider a cheat.  And so Pandit appears a bit of a colorless, gray fellow.  Probably fine for the bank, but not so great for investors in the short run.

The stock will probably turn out to be okay over the long term, but there may still be a lot of junk in Citi's loan portfolio.  I can go either way on this one.

Look for Acquisition Targets

The economy looks to bump along.  The best idea I have, in general, is to find acquisition targets.  I didn't have in mind things as big as T-Mobile.  But here's the situation: the stock market is fully valued at 16 times earnings.  But meanwhile you know that there are huge reservoirs of cash on the balance sheets of major companies:  Apple, Microsoft, Cisco, and others.  So I think this is a great year for M&A (mergers and acquisitions).

Actually, I have such an M&A target, which I've been holding for at least six years.  On the downside, it has yet to generate even one quarter of earnings, but I'm not worried, this will happen any time now.  And it has impressive possibilities, and the list of possible targets includes many with big cash in their treasury.  If you're willing to share some of your winnings with me for finding this stock and doing a lot of the waiting for you, write me at tbbarnard@yahoo.com. 

Practical Suggestion 

My email notices are very  uneven.   Some have been miffed I left them out.  Only inadvertently has this ever happened.  I have yet to find a good way to send out these notices.  My advice is to "follow" the website.  Look for this in the right hand column.

Germany

   

Country	City	Mean IQ
Holland	Amsterdam	109.4
Germany	Hamburg	109.3
Poland	Warsaw	108.3
Sweden	Stockholm	105.8
Yugoslavia	Zagreb	105.7
Italy	Rome	103.8
Austria	Vienna	103.5
Switzerland	Zurich	102.8
Portugal	Lisbon	102.6
Great Britain	London	102.0
Norway	Oslo	101.8
Denmark	Copenhagen	100.7
Hungary	Budapest	100.5
Czechoslovakia	Bratislava	100.4
Spain	Madrid	100.3
Belgium	Brussels	99.7
Greece	Athens	99.4
Ireland	Dublin	99.2
Finland	Helsinki	98.1
Bulgaria	Sofia	96.3
France	Paris	96.1

From V. Buj, Person. & Individ. Diff., Vol. 2, pp. 168 to 169, 1981
Subjects >16 yrs. old tested on the Cattell Culture Fair Test 3 (16 SD), standardized in the USA (IQ=100).
 

    You will notice that missing above are the Asian nations, and my reading suggests that they would be right up there.  The Japanese are brilliant, Seoul has more Ph.D.'s per capita than any other city in the world, and American Chinese are the highest IQ scorers in the country at the moment.  So, this must be a European table I've grabbed off the internet.

    In a more recent European study, it was the Netherlands and Germany again, tied at an average IQ of 107.  

Germany Had a Great Quarter

    And so, bringing me to a sober and brainy post-war Germany.  Population 82 million and not growing.  So, you know that the 2.2% growth in the second quarter had nothing to do with a baby boom, and everything to do with exports.  German unemployment has decreased to the near pre-recession level of 7.7 percent, from 9.1 percent in January, an 18 year low.  It is thought the DAX may be headed to 7,000 by year end from its current setting of 5,900.

    Germany recently supported Greece in the crisis.  Many Germans grumble about this as did the couple from Dusseldorf who sat next me at Lido's as I sipped my coffee and read my Business Week (BBW July 19-July 25, 2010).  They grumbled for sure, but I don't think they'll do much about it because if Germany separates and the Deutsche Mark goes skyward, it will surely impact their exports, which are 41% per cent of the economy, and driving force behind the growth.  And perhaps an unspoken benefit of supporting the Euro is that Germans begin to feel less guilty about their WWII crimes.

    Germany has been restructuring for the past 12 years, and has grown 13% more competitive than its neighbors in that time period.  Siemens, for example, has taken $29 billion in restructuring costs since 2001, and is now enjoying an operating margin greater than GE's unit in Europe, Alstom.

Costs of Unemployment

    In America, when corporations see downturns ahead, they just fire and layoff thousands and write them off.  In Germany, the government paid corporations to keep workers on.  In addition, the government lowered unemployment benefits, but made hiring and firing was made easier, and management and labor worked together to keep a lid on costs.  The government encouraged shorter work weeks and furloughs to keep people in the work force.  It seems sensible, humane, and more effective than our program.  Also, for those concerned about government spending, they spent less.  It's about being smart with your use of scarce resources, which is what economics is all about. (NYT, August 13, 2010).

German National Healthcare

    Germany has the oldest national healthcare system dating back to Otto Von Bismarck's administation and legislation of 1883 and 1884.  Since World War II, a new legislative program covers approximately 92% of the population under a 'Statutory Health Insurance' plan, which provides a standardized level of coverage through any one of approximately 1100 public or private sickness funds. Standard insurance is funded by a combination of employee contributions, employer contributions and government subsidies on a scale determined by income level. Higher income workers sometimes choose to pay a tax and opt out of the standard plan, in favor of 'private' insurance. The latter's premiums are not linked to income level but instead to health status. Healthcare costs inspite of rising drug prices are still only 10.7% of GDP versus, 16% in the U.S.  (Wikipedia: Universal health care, August 31, 2010)  What's so complicated?  Once again, why not just copy it?

Solar Power

    German is well motivated to get into solar power.  It has no access to vast oil and gas deposits, it is dependent on a touchy Russia for natural gas.  It has pursued solar power with substantial subsidies, and even though it does not get the great sunlight of Arizona and Nevada it is doing well with solar power.

    On the business side, the Germany now has the largest manufacturer of solar panels, Q-Cells, which now outsells Sharp, formerly the largest.  It has by far the largest market for photovoltaic systems, which convert sunlight into electricity, with roughly half of the world’s total installations.  And it is the third-largest producer of solar cells and modules, after China and Japan.  (NYT, May 16, 2008)

    If Congress could be convinced to do a second stimulus, I would be for a very large wind turbine and solar program.  I would want it to be large enough, and with enough research to make it self-sufficient, and biased towards American manufacturing.  We need workers/consumers with money to spend.  On the other hand, no money for state governments.  They have to do their own hard work about figuring out their finances.

Deep Social Intelligence

    I am trying to develop a concept that explains the necessary changes in a sophisticated economy and culture that need to be made to have a successful economy and happy populace.  I am not necessarily speaking of compromise, though surely that would be useful.  Or of altruism, a nice but unreliable concept for anyone who's read his Balzac, or greed which usually runs amuck, witness the recent home mortgage disaster.  Straight socialism and capitalism need to be retired as guiding ideas.  What we need, in short, is a method of working incentives so that they serve individuals and the common good.  I think it's a bit of a trick, and maybe it would serve us to find the best model and copy it.  After all, around the world, countries have used our constitution as a model for their own governments.  And General Motors would surely have been much better off if it had copied their Japanese and German competitors.  It is not necessary to start from scratch.  

    I have never understood, for example, why employers want to beat down their workers pay, when workers re-labeled as consumers are your biggest market?  And why employers would want to send jobs overseas for peanuts, when, when everyone ends up doing this you have a market that is paid peanuts, and peanuts is all they will have to spend on your products.  It works in the short run.  In the long run, which we are into now in the States, it means consumers have less money to spend because you've shipped your consumer dollars overseas.  It seems for sure we will have an extended depression.

    My label for this idea is Deep Social Intelligence, and I think the Germans are a good model for both employment and healthcare, two of the main concerns of any society.  Ultimately, I think we need to add that this deep intelligence needs to address behaviors that will permit the continuation of the species, which is not a given, I'm afraid.  I'm not necessarily speaking about the climate, I'm thinking more of survival, and the clear-cutting of forests, and the concomitant decimation of species.  E.O. Wilson has speculated that we are losing 27,000 species per year.  Yet we behave as though we do not necessarily need those species or forests, but maybe we do.  Investors, think diversity.  Think balanced portfolio.

A Plug for Human Survival 

    So, I would urge the immediate cessation of clear-cutting in Indonesia and Brazil.  These are important planetary resources.  And maybe fish populations need to be protected as well.  The oceans have turned into huge deserts.  We are part of a great ecosystem, a vast complex system, which we have not nearly the knowledge to deal with.  Nevertheless, we have exploited it like it is endless, and have not been conservative in our treatment of it, which may come back to bite us in the ass.  As Clint would say, a man's got to know his limitations.  We should call a hands-off to doing anything with these rainforests.  Well, it's just a plug.  Far be it from me to stop anyone's fun in plundering, pell-mell, what's left in a mad dash toward planetary suicide.

Investments

    The rush into governments smells odoriferous to me.  Why are people chasing yields which are dropping to nothing?  Well, it's uncertainty, of course.  I hate to be the optimist, especially when PE ratios are so high, but I recently read somewhere that there is $8 trillion in cash sloshing around, and as I have said repeatedly, every intelligent person I know has a substantial cash component to their portfolio.  It is not the recipe of a great market drop.  We certainly could get another correction.  It is the end of summer, the doldrums could drift into a decline.

    Investors are going to finally get tired of getting nothing for the money.  And an exit in governments would mean better times for the stock market.

    Hey, this is best I can do for free.  Join my partners.  See below.

August 31, 2010

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Sponsors

I'm still elephant hunting.  I'm only interested in game changers and truly unusual opportunities.  My father has told me many times that what made the difference in his stock market investments were the elephants, the stocks that went up multiple times.  Much harder to pick those now than 15 years ago when all you had to do was mention the internet.  And you better believe it, I'm saving my best ideas for my partners.  

Stock Recommendation Partnerships.  Presently, I have two such recommendations.  These are stocks I just can't get enough of for my own account.  You own the stock in your account, but a percentage of the winnings go to Thomas Barnard for his recommendations. 

Here is the agreement:  Stock Recommendation Partnership Agreement.  No agreement no matter how well drawn is sufficient.  If I don't know you personally, don't bother.  If I do know you, now is a good time to check this out.

These are stocks of unusual potential.  But the risk is always bigger with nascent companies.  One of the stocks has recently run-up more than 100%, the other one has gone down 30%.  Never mind, I love them both still.  The one that has gone up, has only just begun to go up.  The one that has gone down has one of the most compelling stories I have ever come across.  There is so much compression, these both have a long way to go on the upside.

Email: tbbarnard@yahoo.com

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M.E. Reiss Ltd.  Select investment management.  Email: mereiss@yahoo.com

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Book is Out!   Get Your Copy Today!

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Check it out here:  http://www.theintelligencebreak.com/

And buy it here for the nice price:  http://www.booktable.net/book/9781450056380

And for those within striking distance of Oak Park, check out a bookstore rated #1 in the Chicago Reader poll.  I highly recommend it.  They're very resourceful book buyers with a very interesting inventory, nice prices, and the store has an agreeable ambience. 

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Bernanke's Market

I started this issue of the newsletter a month ago, and I think it high time I push it out the door.  I have moved to this new location because it will permit comments, which I am not sophisticated enough to know how to do at the old place.  I can keep tabs better on responses, and if people vote their approval by clicking on ads, it will help to defray some expenses.  I recommend to readers that they become followers, because of the difficulties Yahoo has given me in sending out the email notices some people complained that they had been taken off the distribution list.  Not intended by me.

Bernanke's announcement that he intends to take the Fed into a second round of quantitative easing means it's his market.  As Marty Zweig used to warn on Wall Street Week years ago, don't bet against the Fed.

There will be obvious fallout, the price of oil has gone up.  Good for oil speculators, and at first blush not necessarily good for the economy as a whole.  Though maybe it will be a blessing in disguise.  We need to fire up the alternative energy technologies.  Only a higher price for oil will have any effect on this business.

And will QEII (Quantitative Easing II) shore up prices in general?  House prices are still falling (5.6% year over year), and rents are weak.  My intuition says no, prices may still fall.  Demand is the main issue, and demand has been stolen in prior years with low interest rates, so you first have a supply problem of a huge inventory of homes.  (And also shadow inventory - people who would like to sell but have withdrawn their homes from the market).  Lower interest rates now will not necessarily mean more demand.  I mean, you have to ask yourself, what is Bernanke thinking?  Does he plan to steal demand from 2012-15?

Secondly, there appears to be no new products to drive the economy in a remarkable way like the trio from the 1990s:  cell phones, personal computers, and the internet.  All three are staples now, and do not represent a new product categories.  Tablets, a la iPad are not really a new class of product like the PC was in the early 1980s, and it appears they could possibly cannibalize notebook and laptop sales.

So, while I do expect that stock prices may very well top old highs, the PE ratio of the S&P 500 according to Robert Shiller's spreadsheet is 21.17, high enough for a lousy recovery like the one we are experiencing.  But Bernanke may cause a bubble to the high 20s, which is not necessarily a good thing.  There could be a possible second downturn, which would not be a happy thing.

I mean that unemployment, which is still high even by the grossly understated by the government figure of 9.5%, could drive higher yet.  Municipalities may be forced to cut staff.

Bernanke cannot solve all the problems of the economy by himself.  He needs help.  New products would certainly help, but a huge stimulus program for alternative energy would probably help the most. 

Tax Cuts

I guess for the rich folks it's a sigh of relief, Obama will go along with Republicans who make a religion out of tax cuts.  But it seems to me tax policy is a bit of a trick.  The rich would rather pay low taxes now on earned income and capital gains, even if later this might well be their undoing.  What I mean is:  that if low taxes now mean deficit and problems for government bonds, and as a consequence the stock market collapses, then the money they saved disappears in investments that decline by 50%.  The the tax cuts seems stupid and short-sighted.  But I'm not here to proselytize.  We'll see together, but it looks like it might not be the best thing.

As a practical matter, the two year time limit on tax cuts will not give executives a long enough time frame to make necessary investments in plant and equipment, bringing me to:

Alan Greenspan and Long Term Investment

Alan Greenspan was on Squawk Box on CNBC recently, and he says that the econometric work he has done shows the bond purchases by the Fed are beginning to crowd out the private sector.  And that enormous amounts of cash on corporate balance sheets reflects a lack of confidence on the part of CEOs going forward.  His contention is that investment in plant and equipment means jobs down the road, and his work shows this is not happening.  Look at his comments, highly instructive.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1680587782&play=1

Greenspan has been hawkish about raising tax revenue, so he's not for the tax cuts.  He claims now the main reason he was for the Bush tax cuts is that the surpluses of the Clinton years threatened to reduce the national debt to zero, and the Fed does all its work with debt, so if there were no debt the Fed cannot do its work.  Now he is afraid that the deficits will do all manner of harm.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1680623935&play=1

I think Greenspan has done us quite a bit of harm by lowering rates as low as he did in 2001 and 2002, but he is a serious, reflective man.  He has backed away from Ayn Rand; he has admitted he was wrong about regulation.  He is still a man in progress, and worth listening to. 

Great Work-Arounds

In learning a language we are always looking for work-arounds.  If I say I've got the time to go into town, there is no exact translation.  So, in Spanish, for example, we say Yo tengo el tiempo.  (I have the time).  Here's one of the great work-arounds of all time:

Fusion works in the sun because its great gravity creates the density necessary to fuse hydrogen atoms into helium, releasing huge amounts of energy in the process .  Fusion works in hydrogen bombs because the atomic explosion greats artificially the great density of the sun caused by its great gravity.  In trying to tap fusion to provide electricity for utilities, scientists are trying to substitute for the great gravity of the sun, heat greater than the sun's and a huge magnetic field to keep it all together.  They say the big problem is materials, and the magnetic field also causes problems. 

Dow Theory Buy Signal

There is always some dispute about Dow Theory signals, but it appears that when the DJIA closed above 11,444.08, which happened this week, it signaled higher stock prices ahead.  I'm thinking that the next year will be good for the Dow, but probably not without some scares along the way.

On the Downside

According to Mark Hulbert, insiders are dumping shares at a 7 to 1 ratio (share sold to bought), which is the highest such ratio since 2007.  To be fair Hulbert says he come across work that suggests execs are always selling, and that a normal ratio is 6 to 1.

There is still a Chinese housing bubble lurking out there.

I have it on good report there is going to be crisis when it comes to lifting the national debt ceiling.

According to Investors Intelligence, 56.8% are bullish and 20.5% are bearish (December 14, 2010).  This is an inverse indicator.  So, it's not bullish.

My Christmas Gift    

I have been recommending Citibank, Citigroup (C) for quite some time now.  Things have improved, and so for those who are not risk averse, I am going to recommend either the Jan 2012 $5 call options for the Jan 2013 $5 call options.  I bought some.  You can also buy the stock, but the returns will be much, much smaller.  I'm pretty sure there will be a good return next year, but I would expect the stock to level off after it makes its recovery.

The government sold its last shares for a total profit of $12 billion.

Vikram Pandit, who I have liked all along, is getting raves.

Probably they over-reserved for losses, they will recognize profits as the situation improves.

Jim Cramer says the press is going to leave them alone more, he's bullish on it.

It has one of the best brands in the world.  I got an account there because it was so handy in Buenos Aires.  I could only use my American Express cheques at their office, and it was a pain to get there.  Citi had several handy branches.

It's not necessary to always come up with new ideas.  Benjamin Graham liked GEICO in the 1920s, became a director of the company, passed this investment idea on in the 1950s to his student at Columbia, Warren Buffett, who bought a huge stake in GEICO when they ran into trouble in the 1970s, and then in the 1990s ultimately bought the whole thing.  Ninety years all in the same company.

December 17, 2010

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Spending Down

What do you call it when the City of Chicago sells off the parking meters and the Skyway?  Or when the teacher's pension funds sell off 10% of their assets?  I call it Spending Down.

http://barnardviewpoint.blogspot.com/

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Sponsors

You keep nursing your 3%.  I'm still elephant hunting.  I'm only interested in game changers and truly unusual opportunities.  Dad told me many times that what made the difference in his stock market investments were the elephants, the stocks that went up multiple times.  Much harder to pick those now than 15 years ago when all you had to do was mention the internet.  But there are opportunities around as striking as those of 20 years ago.  And you better believe it, I'm saving my best ideas for my partners. 

Last newsletter my favorite pick was up 200% since the March lows, now its up 300%.  There is still a long way to go.  I have seldom come across a stock which is better positioned than this one.  I can almost smell the money.  This company is well-position, and Bernanke wants a stock market increase so people will feel like buying houses, what else could you want?

I myself am still down on this stock.  I probably have an average price probably twice the current price.  You can buy it for less than me!  I've held this stock for six years.  You're sharing with me some of the winnings for all this waiting I've been doing for you.  I know everyone feels stock recommendations should always be free like parking, but then parking isn't free a lot of the time, isn't it?

Here is the Stock Recommendation Partnership Agreement

http://www.barnardobserver.com/Stock%20Recommendation%20Partnership.pdf

(No agreement no matter how well drawn is sufficient.  If I don't know you personally, don't bother.  If I do know you, now is a good time to check this out.)

Email: tbbarnard@yahoo.com

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M.E. Reiss Ltd.  Select investment management.  Email: mereiss@yahoo.com

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My novel is getting nice reader reviews.

Check out the reviews at Amazon:

 
http://www.amazon.com/Intelligence-Break-Curious-Relationship-between/dp/1450056385/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1286576890&sr=8-1

The Intelligence Break, a novel about the curious relationship between brains and sex

Email: tbbarnard@yahoo.com

Check it out here:  http://www.theintelligencebreak.com/

And buy it here for the nice price:  http://www.booktable.net/book/9781450056380

And for those within striking distance of Oak Park, check out a bookstore rated #1 in the Chicago Reader poll.  I highly recommend it.  They're very resourceful book buyers with a very interesting inventory, nice prices, and the store has an agreeable ambience. 

The Book Table

1045 Lake Street

Oak Park, IL 60301

708-386-9800